Hedge Fund 30 Tracker
Updated 2026-11-03 16:36-05:00 · latest TradingView prices at that time · 13F quarter 2026-06-30

Hedge Fund 30 Tracker

The 30 stocks the 21 largest hedge funds hold the most dollars of, refreshed every weekday after the US close and re-ranked when new 13F filings land. Tap a ticker for its deep-dive in The Hedge Fund 30.

Alerts, last 7 days

The 30

1NVDA206.69+2.3%29.51726.1313.0816%64.87%+61%-15%▼20▲50▲100▲200Nov 17 AMC6.22% · 4.28%
2AMZN250.69+2.1%26.32020.2623.23–26.64%+31%-13%▼20▲50▲100▲200~Feb 04 est.-4.06% · -0.14%
3GOOGL280.03+0.4%22.91714.6218.6237%19.02%+41%-31%▼20▼50▼100▲200~Feb 02 est.-29.69% · -0.30%
4AAPL331.90-1.9%17.01336.9831.6315%8.18%+2%-6%▲20▲50▲100▲200~Feb 04 est.5.56% · 0.95%
5MSFT520.99+2.7%16.11827.2121.6623%19.64%+22%-6%▲20▲50▲100▲200~Jan 26 est.3.61% · 1.83%
6MU855.10+2.6%14.91511.524.054%42.36%+91%-32%▼20▲50▲100▲200Dec 16 5.19% · 5.64%
7TSM404.80+1.5%12.61626.0517.5017%41.02%+37%-17%▼20▲50▲100▲200~Jan 21 est.1.75% · 0.86%
8META621.03+2.4%12.21821.1818.1921%19.44%+37%-22%▼20▼50▲100▲200~Feb 03 est.-41.42% · 1.99%
9AVGO332.13+3.1%11.31642.4017.1917%64.99%+59%-33%▼20▼50▲100▲200Dec 10 3.25% · 1.20%
10AMD483.90+3.7%10.816124.1929.7128%78.77%+36%-27%▼20▲50▲100▲200~Feb 02 est.2.71% · 2.00%
11SPCX141.31+3.6%10.115--–-+81%-37%▼2050100200~Feb 25 est.161.39% · 13.29%
12LRCX230.72+1.4%9.21534.3319.0318%35.42%+59%-47%▼20▼50▲100▲200~Jan 27 est.0.84% · 0.95%
13AMAT381.92+2.0%8.51532.9320.3521%37.78%+70%-48%▼20▼50▲100▲200Nov 12 AMC2.86% · 1.33%
14INTC60.55+1.0%8.116-33.3539%92.53%+54%-57%▼20▼50▼100▲200~Jan 28 est.27.89% · -0.25%
15TSLA398.50-1.3%7.914438.35197.0353%19.92%+5%-20%▲20▲50▲100▲200~Feb 03 est.5.49% · -0.04%
16STX606.38+2.1%6.51531.869.2114%80.71%+75%-47%▼20▼50▲100▲200~Jan 27 est.3.22% · 2.04%
17GEV918.20+6.5%6.21324.0935.653%26.42%+25%-23%▼20▲50▲100200~Jan 27 est.19.47% · 5.41%
18V420.42-1.2%5.91734.9824.5415%13.56%+7%-1%▲20▲50▲100▲200~Jan 28 est.1.20% · 0.40%
19JPM337.98-0.8%5.81414.1813.212%*11.14%+11%-8%▲20▲50▲100▲200~Jan 14 est.-6.03% · -2.07%
20COST1,019.26-2.0%5.71249.1040.7219%9.73%+6%-7%▲20▲50▲100▲200Dec 10 3.21% · 0.80%
21SNDK1,126.52+4.8%5.2149.033.86-3%63.55%+93%-52%▼20▼50100200~Feb 04 est.6.09% · 2.92%
22BRK.B557.07+0.2%5.01214.0124.9519%3.58%-1%-0%▲20▲50▲100▲200~Nov 03 est.19.56% · 5.48%
23LLY1,409.38-0.1%4.91446.3028.4324%32.95%+4%-3%▲20▲50▲100▲200~Feb 10 est.30.99% · 8.03%
24PSX271.94-1.1%4.8138.688.53-4%50.00%+10%-9%▲20▲50▲100▲200~Feb 04 est.20.05% · 11.29%
25WDC347.35+2.6%4.81413.508.5913%74.20%+79%-57%▼20▼50▲100▲200~Feb 03 est.12.98% · 5.72%
26MA647.18-1.7%4.51233.8527.9515%16.46%+10%-2%▲20▲50▲100▲200~Jan 28 est.2.74% · 1.50%
27UNH404.44+1.0%4.51723.0817.274%18.47%+18%-36%▲20▲50▲100▼200~Jan 20 est.13.34% · 1.24%
28COF208.71-1.0%4.31512.338.741%*12.08%+23%-20%▲20▲50▲100▲200~Jan 26 est.20.97% · 0.60%
29BE214.01+9.0%4.214132.5240.0734%124.59%+38%-39%▼20▲50▲100▲200~Feb 11 est.36.09% · 15.42%
30ASML1,552.14+1.7%4.11538.2324.4810%41.51%+55%-22%▼20▲50▲100▲200~Jan 27 est.18.30% · -1.33%

Sort by any column. Off high = % below the all-time high. Rank change is versus the previous 13F quarter. I/G (implied growth) = how fast the company's free cash flow must grow each year for the next 10 years to justify today's price, if you want a 10% yearly return (a reverse DCF; * = uses net income, for banks). Compare it with Analyst 5Y: if analysts expect more growth than the price needs, the market is more cautious than the analysts; if less, the price already assumes more than they forecast. EMA chips are colored by period (20, 50, 100, 200): ▲ price above that weekly EMA, ▼ below (shaded). Next earnings: the date announced by the company (BMO before the open, AMC after the close); ~ est. = not announced yet, estimated as last report + 91 days. Last beat / miss: how far the last reported EPS and revenue came in above (+) or below (−) the analysts' forecast, e.g. +3.6% · +1.8% means EPS beat by 3.6% and sales by 1.8%. Finviz forward P/E can be two fiscal years out for non-December year ends.

Did the market react fairly?

Each company's call this quarter (held since Oct 1), read in full and compared with its first trading session afterwards. "vs" is the stock's move minus its sector ETF's; "× normal" is that gap measured in the stock's typical daily swing over the prior 60 sessions. These verdicts are judgment calls written when the call was analyzed and don't update daily, and they aren't a recommendation to buy or sell. Tap a company for the reasoning.

4 Overreacted · 2 Underreacted · 3 Unclear · 14 Fair. Waiting for this quarter's call: NVDA (Nov 17), MU (Dec 16), AVGO (Dec 10), AMD (Feb 02), AMAT (Nov 12), COST (Dec 10), BRK.B (no quarterly calls).

GOOGL Overreacted -12.6% day · -10.8 vs XLC · 7.2× normal · since -1.7% Too large a drop: operating profit rose 30% and the EPS miss came mainly from a paper SpaceX loss, though slower Search and negative cash flow are real.

Q3 2026 call on 2026-10-28. Confidence: Medium. First session: 2026-10-29.

What the call said

  • Revenue was $127.6B, up 25%, and operating income rose 30% to $40.6B (31.8% margin). An $8.2B non-operating loss, mainly an unrealized fall in the SpaceX stake, pushed net income and EPS down; the call did not state the EPS figure.
  • Google Cloud revenue rose 103% to $30.7B, with a 36.2% margin versus 23.7% a year ago and a $561B backlog (signed work not yet billed). Sales of TPU systems (Google's AI chip hardware) contributed, but management would not give growth without them when asked.
  • Search grew 12% to $63.3B, slower than Q2 (that rate isn't stated) even though query growth is at a five-year high. Management named currency as the biggest cause, then retail and World Cup timing, plus AI Mode earning less per query.
  • Q4 warnings: a slightly larger currency headwind, about two points of tougher Search comparison, and Cloud margin pressure from renting third-party computing capacity.
  • Capex (spending on data centers and equipment) was $51.4B; the $195-205B full-year range is unchanged and 2027 will rise significantly. Free cash flow was -$9.1B, after a $5.2B EU fine and a TPU inventory build.

The reaction

Fell 12.6% on Oct 29 versus -1.9% for XLC and -0.4% for SPY, so 10.8 points worse than the sector. That is 7.2 times the stock's normal daily swing, a very rare size.

Why this verdict

The direction is arguable: slower Search while AI Mode earns less touches the core profit engine, Q4 came with specific warnings, and cash flow turned negative as commitments grew. But nothing was cut: the capex range held, operating profit grew 30%, Cloud margin jumped, and management tied much of the Search slowdown to currency and timing. The EPS miss was non-operating, so it says little about the business. Inference: a 7-sigma move needs a bigger change than this, though segment-level expectations aren't in our data, which is why confidence is only medium.

Since then

Down another 1.7% through Nov 2 versus -0.9% for XLC, so there has been no rebound and the first move has been neither reversed nor much extended.

What would prove this wrong

Search growth staying weak after the currency and comparison effects fade, or Cloud margins and cash flow falling more than flagged, would show the market was right.

INTC Overreacted -28.6% day · -21.6 vs SMH · 5.6× normal · since -8.8% The guide cut and PC slump justified a fall, but 21.6 points beyond the sector looks too large given data center growth and partly temporary hits.

Q3 2026 call on 2026-10-29. Confidence: Low. First session: 2026-10-30.

What the call said

  • Q3 revenue was $16.5B, non-GAAP gross margin 44.1%, and EPS $0.52 versus its own $0.38 guide, with about $0.01 from interest on the equity raise. So the 27.89% EPS beat looks mostly real, though revenue missed consensus by 0.25%.
  • Q4 guide is $15B-$16B revenue, 38% gross margin and $0.25 EPS, about half of Q3. An analyst put the midpoint about $1.8B below consensus, and management did not dispute it.
  • The PC and client unit had $8.1B of revenue, down 9% sequentially, and should fall more than 20% in Q4 as customers cut inventory because of memory shortages. Intel sees PC units down about 12% in 2026 and about 10% in 2027. The inventory cut is mainly Q4-Q1, perhaps reaching Q2.
  • Data center and AI revenue was $7.3B, up 17% sequentially and nearly 80% from a year earlier, at a 42% operating margin, with mid-teens growth guided for Q4. Demand exceeds supply, and wafer and substrate limits are tightest in the first half of 2027.
  • New disclosures: an accident at the Israel fab costs about $300M of revenue and 2 margin points in Q4, with a similar revenue hit in Q1. Free cash flow will probably be negative in 2027 as capex rises strongly. Cash is about $54B after a $23B August equity raise.

The reaction

Intel fell 28.58% while SMH fell 6.98%, a company-specific move of -21.60 points, or 5.65 of the stock's usual daily swings.

Why this verdict

The direction is right: Q4 EPS halves, margin drops 6 points, PC declines run through 2027, cash flow turns negative, and supply limits cap the server boom. But 2 of those margin points are the fab accident, the inventory cut is expected to fade by about Q2, and data center, yields and costs are all improving. Losing about $108B beyond the sector (inference: 21.6% of the prior close times 5.44B shares) looks large against a roughly $1.8B one-quarter revenue gap. Confidence is low because the transcript does not show what the pre-call price assumed, and the next session went against this verdict.

Since then

In the one session to Nov 2 the stock fell another 8.80% against 2.71% for SMH and 0.48% for SPY, so there is no reversal yet, which argues against this verdict, though one session could reflect other news.

What would prove this wrong

This verdict would be wrong if Q1 guidance shows PC revenue falling further than the inventory story implies, or data center growth stalling on supply limits.

BE Overreacted -11.2% day · -10.0 vs XLI · 1.6× normal · since +1.5% Cash burn and a flat margin outlook were fair worries, but a 10-point company-specific drop looks too large against a big beat and a third guidance raise.

Q3 2026 call on 2026-10-22. Confidence: Low. First session: 2026-10-23.

What the call said

  • Revenue was $1.24B, up 138% from a year earlier and 16% from the prior quarter; operating income was $286M at a 23.1% margin; adjusted EPS was $0.94 versus $0.15 a year ago.
  • Full-year guide raised for the third time: revenue of $4.4-4.6B (about 122% growth), operating income of $960M-$1.03B, adjusted EPS of $3.10-$3.40. That implies Q4 revenue of about $1.35-1.55B (our math).
  • Full-year gross margin outlook stayed at about 34% despite more revenue; management cited ramping new lines, expedited deliveries and mix, with product gross margin at 38.4%.
  • Cash was the weak spot: operating cash flow was -$27M and free cash flow -$181M as inventory, receivables and contract assets (revenue booked but not yet billable) grew; free cash flow is +$42M year to date, with $2.5B of cash.
  • Management said backlog is growing faster than revenue but declined to give a figure until next quarter; new items included 700 MW for Google via utility AEP with carbon capture, and a Fremont expansion with no timeline.

The reaction

The stock fell 11.2% against 1.3% for its sector ETF (XLI), a company-specific drop of 10.0 points, or 1.65 of its normal daily swing.

Why this verdict

EPS and revenue beat consensus by 36% and 15%, margins expanded, and guidance rose again, so the call's core message was stronger demand. The negatives are real but smaller in scale: one quarter's working-capital cash use, which management says will even out, and a margin outlook held rather than raised. Our inference is that this justified some caution, not a 10-point decline. Confidence is low because the transcript gives no consensus for implied Q4 revenue, which could have disappointed, and the withheld backlog figure adds doubt.

Since then

From the first-session close to Nov 2 the stock rose 1.5% against 3.1% for XLI, so the price has not reversed the drop relative to its sector and gives this verdict no support.

What would prove this wrong

This verdict is wrong if contract assets keep growing without turning into cash, or if the backlog figure due next quarter fails to outgrow revenue as management claimed.

LRCX Overreacted -11.8% day · -5.8 vs SMH · 1.4× normal · since -1.1% Record margins and a 2027 market outlook near 30% growth met a drop well beyond the sector, mainly over a supply-limited guide whose missing shipments move into March.

FQ1 2027 call on 2026-10-21. Confidence: Low. First session: 2026-10-22.

What the call said

  • September-quarter revenue was $8.22B, up 22% sequentially and 54% from a year earlier. Gross margin (52.4%), operating margin (40.2%) and EPS ($2.20) were all records, but the beats against consensus were under 1% (EPS 0.84%, revenue 0.95%).
  • December guide is $8.6B plus or minus $0.4B, about 5% sequential growth at the midpoint (our arithmetic), with 52.5% gross margin and $2.33 EPS. The guide was held back by supply limits, and those shipments move to March. Management declined to confirm an analyst's $300M-$400M estimate of the effect.
  • Industry spending on chip-making equipment is put at the mid-$150B range for 2026 and above $200B as a preliminary view for 2027, roughly 30% growth, still limited by clean-room space and some components. Customer visibility runs through 2028.
  • Softer items: China falls significantly from 35% of revenue, the tax rate stays near 16.5% versus 11% in June, customer down payments fell, and growth in the service and upgrades unit slows from over 30% in 2026 to over 15% in 2027.
  • Cumulative revenue expected from its Aether dry resist tool was raised about $1B to about $2.5B by decade end. Free cash flow was a record $3.24B.

The reaction

Lam fell 11.76% while SMH fell 5.99%, so about half the drop was sector-wide. The company-specific part was -5.77 points, or 1.42 of the stock's usual daily swings.

Why this verdict

The direction is arguable: sequential growth slows from 22% to about 5%, the beat was thin, China falls and tax rises. But margins keep rising, the shortfall was described as timing, and the 2027 outlook implies strong market growth, so losing about $19B beyond the sector (inference: 5.77% of the prior close times 1.26B shares) looks large for that. Confidence is low because the transcript gives no consensus for the guide, and a volatile stock may simply fall harder than SMH on a day like this (inference).

Since then

From the first-session close to Nov 2 the stock fell 1.13% against 2.87% for SMH and 1.55% for SPY, a small relative recovery that neither confirms nor reverses the first reaction.

What would prove this wrong

This verdict would be wrong if the March quarter fails to show the delayed shipments, or if the January outlook for 2027 equipment spending comes in below $200B.

UNH Underreacted -0.2% day · +1.2 vs XLV · 0.9× normal · since +6.0% A raised 2026 guide and an explicit signal that 2027 consensus looks too low moved the stock only about 1 point above its sector.

Q3 2026 call on 2026-10-13. Confidence: Medium. First session: 2026-10-13.

What the call said

  • Revenue was $113B and adjusted EPS $4.69, up from $2.92, a 13.34% beat. The medical care ratio (share of premiums paid out in claims) improved to 88.4% from 89.9%.
  • The 2026 adjusted EPS guide rose to at least $20.50 from $19.50-$20.00 given on the Q2 call, despite extra Q4 investment.
  • The CFO said 2027 consensus may be too low and pointed to the low end of the 13-16% growth target as a better start. Inference: that implies about $23.17 or more. The transcript gives neither the consensus figure nor a formal 2027 guide, which is due before year-end.
  • Margin outlooks improved: Medicare Advantage near the top of 2-4% (over 3% on the Q2 call), and core Medicaid moderately better than -1% (-1% to -1.7% on the Q2 call), with 2026 called the low point. Management also said it expects to approach 75% of members in 4+ Star plans.
  • Negatives: commercial cost growth is still above 11%, which pushes out margin recovery there. Star ratings face continued investment, and an analyst said Optum Health's guide implies a clearly negative Q4, which management attributed to seasonality and investment rather than disputing.

The reaction

The stock slipped 0.20% while the healthcare ETF (XLV) fell 1.35%, a gap of +1.15 points. That is +0.86 sigma, within a normal day.

Why this verdict

The call changed the picture in several measurable ways: a higher guide, better margins in the government businesses, and unusually direct guidance-style language on 2027. The main negatives, such as high commercial costs and delayed margin recovery, had already been flagged on the Q2 call. A gain of about 1 point against the sector, and a flat absolute price, looks small for that much new information. This is an inference, because the transcript does not show what investors already expected or how much the stock priced in beforehand.

Since then

The stock is up 6.00% since that close and well ahead of SPY's -3.33%, but it trails XLV's 8.81%, so the later move does not confirm the verdict against its sector.

What would prove this wrong

A 2027 outlook below the 13% growth pace, or medical costs rising faster than its 2027 pricing assumes, would show the market was right not to react more.

MSFT Underreacted -0.2% day · +1.0 vs XLK · 0.8× normal · since -4.3% Azure grew 48% and was guided to 49-50% despite delayed capacity, yet the stock beat its sector by only one point, inside a normal day's swing.

FQ1 2027 call on 2026-10-28. Confidence: Low. First session: 2026-10-29.

What the call said

  • Revenue was $92.3B, up 19%, with a 50% operating margin and EPS of $4.89, up 18% after adjusting for the OpenAI investment. Finviz shows beats of 3.6% on EPS and 1.8% on revenue.
  • Azure grew 48%, ahead of the company's expectations, and Q2 is guided to 49-50% in constant currency (excluding exchange-rate moves) even with some rented GPU capacity slipping to the second half. The CFO said reaching that needs more efficiency gains still to be found, and that token pricing is uncertain; comparisons get tougher after Q2.
  • Commercial remaining performance obligation (contracted future revenue) rose 73% to $677B, about 30% of it due within 12 months. Commercial bookings fell 12% against large deals a year earlier.
  • Capex was $45.2B, held down by delayed third-party deliveries; Q2 should top $50B, the calendar year about $170B, with acceleration in the second half. Operating cash flow rose 29% to $58B, free cash flow was $18.6B, and management expects to stay free-cash-flow positive in FY27 while keeping outside funding as an option.
  • Weak spots: Windows OEM revenue fell 27% and is guided down in the mid-30s, sales execution on M365 E3 and standalone products was weaker, Microsoft Cloud gross margin goes from 66% to about 65%, Q2 operating margin dips slightly, and no Copilot figure was given when asked.

The reaction

Slipped 0.2% on Oct 29 while XLK fell 1.2% and SPY 0.4%, so 1.0 point better than the sector. That is 0.75 times the stock's normal daily swing, within ordinary noise.

Why this verdict

The call showed Azure still accelerating while short of supply, alongside a 50% margin and positive free cash flow. Inference: a company-specific gain smaller than a normal day looks light for that. The offsets are genuine, since the guide leans on efficiency gains not yet delivered, margins dip, Windows is shrinking and spending steps up later. Confidence is low because Azure consensus isn't in our data, so the guide may have been partly expected.

Since then

Down 4.3% through Nov 2, but XLK fell 7.7% and SPY 2.2%, so holding up better than the sector gives partial support, though that gap could reflect other news.

What would prove this wrong

Azure missing the 49-50% guide, or slowing sharply in the second half with margins falling more than guided, would show the muted reaction was right.

GEV Unclear -1.9% day · -2.2 vs XLI · 0.8× normal · since -1.8% Results and guidance rose, yet the stock slipped less than a normal day's move; slower turbine bookings and a $9B deal may explain it, so the signal is weak.

Q3 2026 call on 2026-10-28. Confidence: Medium. First session: 2026-10-28.

What the call said

  • Orders were $29.3B, up 96%, and backlog reached $197B from $176B a quarter earlier, with equipment backlog up about $16B to $104B. Adjusted EBITDA was $1.9B, up 123%, with margin up 6.9 points.
  • Power's EBITDA margin hit 21.4%, up 8.3 points, and its full-year range rose 2 points to 19%-21%. Company guidance is now $46.5B-$47.5B of revenue, a 13.5%-14.5% adjusted EBITDA margin and $16B-$17B of free cash flow; the call doesn't state the old company ranges.
  • Gas turbine agreements were 11 GW in Q3 out of 52 GW this year, so about 41 GW in the first half (my arithmetic). The CEO pointed to 13 GW or more in Q4 and said 2027 quarters will likely look more like the second half. Q4 price per kW should fall from Q3 on mix, though full-year pricing is up about 50%.
  • Free cash flow was $5.4B, of which $5.3B came from working capital, mainly customer down payments, leaving about $17B of cash. The buyback doubled to $20B after 15.6M shares were bought at about $635 on average.
  • GE Vernova will buy Trench Group, a grid-equipment maker, for $9B, half debt and half cash, closing late 2027. That is 13x expected 2028 EBITDA before synergies, with a roughly 36% margin expected and $50M-$100M of annual cost savings by 2030.

The reaction

GEV fell 1.9% while the industrial fund XLI and SPY each rose 0.3%, leaving it 2.2 points behind its sector. That gap is 0.75 times the stock's normal daily move, so smaller than an ordinary day's swing.

Why this verdict

On the numbers the call improved the picture, which argues the direction was wrong. Yet the move is too small to read as a firm judgment, and the call offered real reasons for caution: new gas agreements slowing from about 20 GW a quarter to 11-13 GW (inference), a softer Q4 pricing mix, cash flow that leaned almost entirely on down payments, and a full-year Wind loss of $400M-$500M despite a $72M Q3 profit. The transcript does not state EPS, so it can't show whether Finviz's 19% beat holds one-offs. That leaves too little evidence to call this Wrong way or Fair.

Since then

From the Oct 28 close to Nov 2 the stock fell another 1.8% while XLI rose 0.7% and SPY fell 2.6%, so it lagged its sector but beat the market, which neither confirms nor reverses the first move.

What would prove this wrong

Gas agreements landing clearly above or below the roughly 13 GW pointed to for Q4, plus the backlog margin data due in January, would show whether the dip was a mistake or a fair early warning.

AMZN Unclear -1.4% day · -0.7 vs XLY · 0.4× normal · since +2.2% The small drop was mostly a market-wide selloff; big AWS targets and bigger spending pull opposite ways, and the company-specific gap sits within normal noise.

Q3 2026 call on 2026-10-29. Confidence: Medium. First session: 2026-10-30.

What the call said

  • Revenue was $201.9B, up 12% (North America +6%, International +8% excluding currency, with the Prime Day shift to Q2 costing about 4 points). Operating income rose 61% to $28.1B, a record 13.9% margin. The call gave no EPS, net income or free cash flow figure, so the 4.1% EPS miss can't be checked from the transcript.
  • AWS revenue rose 39.3% to $46B, its sixth straight acceleration, with a 38.7% margin and a $578B backlog (signed work not yet billed). An analyst pointed out that quarter-on-quarter growth slowed; AWS added $3.8B, and the CEO said capacity additions vary by quarter.
  • New forward statement: the CEO expects AWS to grow above 40% in each of 2027 and 2028, and to reach $1 trillion of revenue within 5-10 years, citing good visibility on large capacity reservations.
  • Capex was $75.9B in Q3 and about $220B for 2026, with meaningfully more in 2027 and no number given. The CFO gave no AWS margin guidance and said faster AI growth and component prices weigh on it.
  • Q4 guidance is $240-247B of sales and $28.5-33.5B of operating income, with most Amazon Leo (satellite) costs still expensed and fuel and transport costs higher than in Q3. Ad revenue grew 12% on timing effects, with high-teens growth expected in Q4.

The reaction

Fell 1.4% on Oct 30 versus -0.7% for XLY and -1.8% for SPY, so 0.7 point worse than the sector but 0.4 better than the market. At 0.4 times the stock's normal daily swing, the company-specific part can't be told apart from noise.

Why this verdict

The call had real news both ways: long-range AWS growth targets on one side, and more spending, no cash-flow figure and extra costs in the Q4 profit guide on the other. A near-zero reaction could mean these cancelled out or that investors already expected them, and the transcript can't settle which. Inference: because the sign flips between the sector and market comparisons, the data doesn't support calling this fair or mispriced.

Since then

Up 2.2% through Nov 2, in line with XLY's +2.4% and ahead of SPY's -0.5%, so nothing company-specific has been confirmed or reversed.

What would prove this wrong

Evidence that investors had not already priced in the 40% AWS targets, such as consensus estimates jumping after the call, would make this an underreaction rather than a toss-up.

ASML Unclear -3.9% day · +0.0 vs SMH · 0.0× normal · since -7.5% The 3.94% fall matched the chip ETF almost exactly, so the price says little about a strong call whose headline earnings beat was inflated by an investment gain.

Q3 2026 call on 2026-10-14. Confidence: Medium. First session: 2026-10-14.

What the call said

  • Q3 sales were a record EUR 11.7B. Gross margin of 57.5% beat guidance, helped by EUR 3.3B of sales to existing tool owners, about EUR 0.4B above guidance, mainly from productivity upgrades.
  • Net income of EUR 5B includes about EUR 0.5B from revaluing the Mistral AI stake. Inference: without it EPS is near EUR 11.65 rather than EUR 12.95, about a 6% beat instead of the headline 18.3%. Sales missed consensus by 1.33%.
  • Q4 sales guide is EUR 14.2B-15.2B, about 26% above Q3 at the midpoint (our arithmetic), with gross margin near 57%, lower than Q3 because of ramp-up costs. Full-year 2026 sales are guided to EUR 44B-45B, up about 36%, at about 56% margin.
  • About 65 low-NA EUV systems (its main advanced chip-printing tools) should ship this year versus 44 in 2025. Its planned output for the next two years falls short of demand, so ASML is studying 2028 capacity growth above the 30% discussed last quarter.
  • Orders for 2028 are building, and customers want to order for 2029-2030, which ASML has not accepted yet. Price rises on the most critical tools are agreed, starting to show in 2027 and fully from 2028. The CFO called upgrades a swing factor for margins.

The reaction

ASML fell 3.94% and SMH fell 3.98%, so the company-specific move was +0.03 points, or 0.01 of the stock's usual daily swing. SPY fell 1.08%.

Why this verdict

With no company-specific move, there is almost nothing for the call to explain. The longer-range signals on 2028 capacity, pricing and early orders look positive and could argue for underreaction. Against that, the real beat was smaller than the headline, sales slightly missed, Q4 margin is guided down, and the transcript does not show how much of this investors already expected.

Since then

From the first-session close to Nov 2 the stock fell 7.51% against 9.99% for SMH and 2.27% for SPY, a mild 2.5-point edge over chips that leans positive but could reflect other news.

What would prove this wrong

Continued outperformance as ASML firms up 2028 capacity and gives 2027 margins in January would show the call was underpriced, while a margin guide hurt by ramp costs would point the other way.

AAPL Fair -1.9% day · -3.2 vs XLK · 2.6× normal · since – A record quarter, but December guidance showed memory costs squeezing margins and services slowing, which fits a 3.2-point drop against the sector.

FQ4 2026 call on 2026-11-02. Confidence: Medium. First session: 2026-11-03.

What the call said

  • Revenue was $114.5B, up 12%: iPhone $57.6B (+17%), Mac $10.8B (+24%), iPad $6.2B (-10%), wearables $8.3B (-8%), and Greater China +21%. EPS was $2.10, up 14%, including $0.05 from tariff refunds. The transcript gives no consensus figures.
  • Gross margin was 47.9%, including about 1 point from tariff refunds that are now mostly collected. December is guided to 45-46%; the CFO accepted an analyst's estimate of a decline of about 1.4 points at the midpoint excluding refunds, mostly from memory.
  • Management described memory pricing as without precedent and still rising beyond December, with the benefit of cheaper existing inventory fading. Prices have already gone up on Mac, iPad and iPhone, it is too early to read the effect on demand, and purchase obligations rose $33B in one quarter.
  • December revenue is guided up 7-10% against a 16% comparison, limited by supply, and is still expected to be the largest quarter ever. Memory will constrain Mac and iPad, and iPhone Duo (the new foldable) is short of supply with no date for balance.
  • Services revenue rose 10% to $31.6B and is guided to 8-9%, citing third-party licensing and currency; mobile gaming stays weak. Siri AI cloud costs start weighing on margin, and operating expenses are guided up 11-13%.

The reaction

AAPL closed at $344.63 on Oct 30, $338.32 on Nov 2 and $331.90 on Nov 3, down 1.9% in the first session, while XLK rose 1.3% ($179.51, $174.22, $176.51) and SPY 0.3% ($755.72, $752.10, $754.35). That is 3.2 points worse than the sector, or 2.7 times the stock's normal daily swing of about 1.2%: sizeable but not extreme.

Why this verdict

Results were strong, but the new information was mostly about costs and supply: lower margin guidance with no relief given beyond December, services under 10%, and growth capped by supply. Tariff refunds also flattered September's margin and EPS. The offsets are real, including demand above supply and a record December expected. Inference: a drop of about 3% against the sector matches a margin step-down of about 1.4 points with no stated end, though we have no consensus figures to test it.

Since then

No later data exists: Nov 3 is both the first session and the last close, so nothing has confirmed or reversed the move yet.

What would prove this wrong

Memory costs easing sooner than management implied, or December gross margin landing above the 45-46% range, would suggest the drop was too large.

MA Fair +4.2% day · +2.7 vs XLF · 2.4× normal · since +3.5% The rise fit broad-based 14% revenue growth, though it sits at the high end because part of the beat was timing and the full-year guide stayed put.

Q3 2026 call on 2026-10-29. Confidence: Medium. First session: 2026-10-29.

What the call said

  • Net revenue rose 14% and EPS rose 21% to $5.31, with operating expenses up 12%. These growth rates exclude currency effects and special items.
  • Value-added services (fraud, data and marketing tools sold on top of the network) grew 19%, with the CFO calling the effect of the BVNK acquisition minimal. Payment network revenue grew 11%.
  • The CFO said some services projects and deal signings moved from Q4 into Q3, and that Q4 will show a matching offset. The size of this shift was not stated.
  • Guidance did not rise: full-year and Q4 revenue growth are both still expected at the high end of low double digits. Q4 also carries about a 1 point currency drag and a higher share of revenue going to rebates and incentives.
  • Volumes were steady: total payment volume up 7%, cross-border up 11%, transactions up 9%. Cross-border online spending outside travel slowed from 20% to 15%, which the CFO tied mostly to lower-yielding intra-Europe flows. No 2027 guide was given.

The reaction

The stock rose 4.16% while XLF rose 1.44%, a gap of +2.72 points. That is +2.36 sigma, a clearly larger move than a normal day.

Why this verdict

The direction is right: growth was broad, margins widened as revenue outgrew costs, and the company reported new wins such as Pinnacle's card portfolio and an HDFC small-business deal. The size is harder to defend because the revenue beat was only 1.50%, part of it was pulled forward from Q4, and the year's guide did not change. Even so, a gain under 3 points against the sector for a business still growing EPS above 20% is not out of proportion, so this is Fair rather than Overreacted. The transcript does not say what investors expected going in.

Since then

The stock is up another 3.52% since that close against 1.09% for XLF and -2.24% for SPY, so the first reaction has held and extended, though other news could be involved.

What would prove this wrong

A Q4 revenue miss, or growth falling well short of the high end of low double digits, would suggest the market paid for timing and the move was too large.

LLY Fair +6.6% day · +4.2 vs XLV · 2.3× normal · since +2.7% Strong volume and raised guidance justify a move 2.3 times a normal day's size, even allowing for about $900M of one-time revenue and lower US prices.

Q3 2026 call on 2026-10-29. Confidence: Medium. First session: 2026-10-29.

What the call said

  • Revenue grew 39%, nearly $7B above a year earlier. Mounjaro and Zepbound together topped $16B, up about $6B, and key products in oncology, immunology and neuroscience doubled.
  • Full-year guidance is now $91B-$92B of revenue and $35-$36 of non-GAAP EPS. The EPS midpoint rose $4.07 before a $4.57 per share charge for buying pipeline drugs (acquired IPR&D), so about $0.50 lower net (my arithmetic). The call gave no prior revenue range, but put the raise since the first guide at roughly $10B.
  • Q3 EPS was $7.48 after that $4.57 charge, versus $7.02 after a $0.71 charge a year ago. Without the charges that is about $12.05 versus $7.73 (my arithmetic). The call does not state consensus, so it can't show how Finviz's +31% treats the charge.
  • Earnings quality: about $900M of Q3 revenue came from one-time items, including a $410M Jardiance milestone, and about $2B across 2026 is not expected to recur. US price fell 7%, or 10% without a favorable rebate adjustment, and the CFO expects price to remain a drag in 2027, outweighed by volume.
  • Demand: over 500,000 people filled a Lilly prescription through the Medicare obesity-drug Bridge program since July 1, about 80% of Bridge patients are new to this drug class, and 7 in 10 new Bridge patients start on Lilly. US obesity prescriptions for the class grew 82%, and Lilly's share outside the US reached about 58%, up nearly 4 points from Q2.

The reaction

LLY rose 6.6% while the health care fund XLV rose 2.4% and SPY fell 0.4%, leaving it 4.2 points ahead of its sector. That gap is 2.3 times the stock's normal daily move.

Why this verdict

Revenue beat consensus by 8% on Finviz's figures, and the one-time items explain roughly half of that beat (inference: about $25B of revenue and none of the items in consensus). The rest is volume, with Medicare and overseas demand both running ahead of what management planned. Lower prices and about $2B of one-time revenue to lap in 2027 are real offsets, so a sizable but not extreme move fits. The retatrutide trial result came out the day before the call, at a time the call doesn't give, so part of this move may belong to it.

Since then

From the Oct 29 close to Nov 2 the stock gained another 2.7% while XLV gained 0.3% and SPY fell 2.2%, which supports the first reaction, though other news could be involved.

What would prove this wrong

January's 2027 guidance showing price cuts or lost employer coverage outrunning volume growth, or Bridge enrollment fading, would mean the move was too generous.

META Fair -7.0% day · -5.6 vs XLC · 1.9× normal · since -6.5% The headline miss was a legal charge, but underlying margin fell, cash flow went negative and a new share class was announced; 5.6 points against peers fits that.

Q3 2026 call on 2026-10-21. Confidence: Medium. First session: 2026-10-22.

What the call said

  • Revenue was $64.6B, up 26%, with ad revenue up 26% (impressions +10%, price per ad +14%). Q4 revenue guidance is $73-76B, and management expects strong overall growth through 2027 without giving a number.
  • A $9.9B charge for a multi-state attorneys general settlement cut operating income to $13B (-37%, 20% margin) and EPS to $3.83. Excluding it, operating income rose 11%. Inference from the call's figures: that is about a 35% margin versus about 40% a year ago, with expenses up about 36% excluding the charge.
  • Capex was $34.9B and free cash flow -$2.1B, with $82.4B of cash against $83.7B of debt. The low end of the 2026 capex range rose to $135B (now $135-145B); 2027 plans get no numbers until the Q4 call beyond continued aggressive investment.
  • A new non-voting stock will be distributed one-for-one, trading from late January 2027. Management said it can be used for raising capital, staff pay and acquisitions, with no specific financing plan yet.
  • The Muse personal agent passed 10M sign-ups in about six weeks with about 25% using it daily, but it is costly to run; management promised over 10x cost efficiency in a year and gave no per-user cost when asked. Reality Labs losses should be $18-19B in 2026 and about $15B next year; youth-related trials are coming.

The reaction

Fell 7.0% on Oct 22 versus -1.4% for XLC and -1.2% for SPY, so 5.6 points worse than the sector. That is 1.9 times the stock's normal daily swing: large but not extreme.

Why this verdict

The 41% EPS miss overstates the damage: the charge works out to about $3.83 a share before tax, more than the roughly $2.70 gap to consensus (both inferred from reported figures). But the stock didn't price a 41% problem, and what is left is real: costs growing faster than revenue, negative free cash flow, debt above cash, no 2027 spending number, and a new tool that could add share supply. Strong revenue and guidance are real offsets, which fits a move under 2 sigma rather than something larger.

Since then

Down another 6.5% through Nov 2, about the same as XLC's -6.7%, so the stock has simply tracked its sector and the first move is neither confirmed nor reversed.

What would prove this wrong

2027 guidance showing costs growing no faster than revenue, or Muse costs falling as promised without a stock sale, would suggest the drop was too large.

SPCX Fair +7.8% day · +8.0 vs ITA · 1.8× normal · since -14.4% Revenue guidance more than doubling by Q1 2027 justified a jump of about two normal daily swings, with soaring capex and one-offs keeping it from being larger.

Q3 2026 call on 2026-10-20. Confidence: Medium. First session: 2026-10-21.

What the call said

  • Revenue was $14.6B, up 161% from a year earlier; adjusted EBITDA was $8.8B; net income was $4.4B against a $1.1B loss a year ago. The call did not break down what connects EBITDA to net income.
  • AI segment revenue was $7.6B, up $5B from the prior quarter, driven by cloud compute deals and including $608M from Cursor; segment operating income was only $431M after $1.2B of stock compensation tied to Cursor.
  • Q1 2027 revenue was guided to $33-37B, about 2.3-2.5 times Q3 (our math); the $100B annualized revenue target for December was reaffirmed, and backlog was $63B, with about $42B due within a year.
  • Capex was $19.6B and rises to $35-40B in Q4; compute grows from 1.7 gigawatts to 2.5-3 by year end, with debt among the funding sources. Q4 gross margin should fall back toward Q2 levels after one-offs, including tariff refunds worth about 3 points of connectivity margin.
  • Musk gave a $500B-$1T annualized revenue figure for end-2027 without supporting detail; the CFO's guidance stopped at Q1. Compute is rented mostly on short contracts at spot-like prices, with payback under a year at today's pricing.

The reaction

The stock rose 7.8% while its sector ETF (ITA) slipped 0.2%, a company-specific gain of 8.0 points, or 1.8 of its normal daily swing.

Why this verdict

A 13% revenue beat and a guide implying more than double the current quarterly revenue is a large change, and a move of under two normal swings is not excessive for that. The 161% EPS beat should carry less weight, since the call does not explain the bridge to net income and flagged one-offs. Offsets are real: capex is about doubling, Q4 margins step down, and much of the revenue rests on short contracts whose pricing could turn. ITA is a poor comparison here because AI was about 52% of revenue (our math).

Since then

From the first-session close to Nov 2 the stock fell 14.4% while ITA rose 4.3% and SPY fell 2.7%, more than reversing the gain, though ITA is a weak benchmark and other news may be involved.

What would prove this wrong

This verdict is wrong if Q1 2027 revenue lands well outside $33-37B or contract renewals start pricing lower per watt, either of which would mean the first-day move misjudged the guide.

SNDK Fair -13.5% day · -6.5 vs SMH · 1.3× normal · since -6.6% A clear beat and strong guide also signalled slowing price gains and flat margins, so falling 6.5 points beyond the sector, about 1.3 daily swings, looks proportionate.

FQ1 2027 call on 2026-10-29. Confidence: Medium. First session: 2026-10-30.

What the call said

  • FQ1 revenue was $11B, up 23% sequentially and above the $10.3B-$10.8B guide. Non-GAAP gross margin was 85.1% and EPS $49.51 versus a $44-$46 guide. EPS beat consensus by 6.09% and revenue by 2.92%. A $513M equity gain, mostly on Kioxia, appears only in the GAAP reconciliation, so the beat looks real (inference).
  • FQ2 guide is $12.2B-$12.6B, about 13% sequential growth at the midpoint (our arithmetic), with gross margin of 84.5%-85.5% and pre-split EPS of $55-$57. Like-for-like price rises are guided as modest, after price drove about 40% of FQ1's growth.
  • The CFO told analysts to be conservative on sequential growth into the March quarter, noting bit shipments fell 19% in that quarter last year.
  • Data center revenue was $4.8B, up 61% sequentially, and edge devices $5.8B, up 7%. Consumer revenue fell 29% to $397M as that market adjusts to higher prices.
  • Long-term customer contracts cover about half of fiscal 2027 bits and about two-thirds of fiscal 2028, and the deal pipeline is larger than its supply out to 2030. Bit growth plans stay at mid-to-high teens. Adjusted free cash flow was $5.7B and buybacks $5B. An 8-for-1 split trades from Nov 20.

The reaction

Sandisk fell 13.47% while SMH fell 6.98%, so about half the drop was sector-wide. The company-specific part was -6.49 points, or 1.33 of the stock's usual daily swings.

Why this verdict

The results were strong, but the call pointed to a slower phase: modest price gains, margins no longer rising near 85%, a warning on March, and consumer buyers pulling back on price (inference on the last point). Long contracts and data center growth are real offsets, which argues for a moderate fall rather than a severe one, and a move of about 1.3 daily swings is moderate. The transcript gives no consensus for the guide, so the size of any guide gap is unknown.

Since then

In the one session to Nov 2 the stock fell another 6.59% against 2.71% for SMH and 0.48% for SPY, which leans toward confirming the first reaction, though one session could reflect other news.

What would prove this wrong

This verdict would be wrong if pricing commentary strengthens next quarter or the March quarter grows clearly rather than softening, which would make the fall look too large.

COF Fair +2.5% day · +2.0 vs XLF · 1.3× normal · since +2.0% A modest gain fit strong credit and visible Discover earnings power, since management itself said the 21% EPS beat was helped by seasonality and a reserve release.

Q3 2026 call on 2026-10-20. Confidence: Medium. First session: 2026-10-21.

What the call said

  • EPS was $5.61, or $6.69 adjusted for Discover and Brex deal items. The Finviz surprise was +20.97% on EPS but only +0.60% on revenue; the transcript does not say which EPS figure that beat uses.
  • The CEO said Q3 is usually seasonally strong and also benefited from a $225M reserve release. Inference: that release is worth about $0.27 per share, a part but not most of the roughly $1.16 beat, if the beat is measured on adjusted EPS.
  • US card charge-offs fell to 3.98%, down 0.73 points from Q2, helped by strong recoveries. Delinquencies rose 0.35 points from Q2 to 3.74%, in line with seasonality, and are no longer beating seasonal patterns. Net interest margin rose 0.40 points to 8.41%.
  • Annualized Discover synergies reached about $1.8B, ahead of schedule. The CEO said remaining synergies should roughly offset expected lost card fees from the Visa/Mastercard settlement, while calling that estimate imprecise.
  • Marketing rose 14% to about $1.6B and will rise further in 2027. Discover card loans fell 2.9% and are expected to keep shrinking for several quarters. The CEO declined to confirm analysts' estimate of about a 20% return on tangible equity.

The reaction

The stock rose 2.53% while XLF rose 0.57%, a gap of +1.96 points. That is +1.30 sigma, a noticeable but not unusual move.

Why this verdict

The call gave real positives: better credit, synergies ahead of plan, and management's statement that the deal's expected earnings power can now be seen. It also came with clear offsets, including a seasonally flattered quarter, more marketing and technology spending ahead, and shrinking Discover loans. A gain of about 2 points against the sector fits that mix, and the 0.60% revenue beat is a better guide to the underlying surprise than the 21% EPS beat.

Since then

The stock is up 1.99% since that close, slightly behind XLF's 2.71% but well ahead of SPY's -2.72%, so the gain has held without confirming anything further.

What would prove this wrong

If credit starts running worse than seasonal norms, or higher marketing leaves returns well below what this quarter suggested, the gain would look too large.

TSLA Fair -3.1% day · -2.6 vs XLY · 1.1× normal · since +7.8% Strong demand and margins were real, but one-off gains, rising future spending and a tempered Optimus timeline made a roughly one-swing dip reasonable.

Q3 2026 call on 2026-10-21. Confidence: Medium. First session: 2026-10-22.

What the call said

  • Automotive gross margin excluding credits rose from 16.3% to 18.1%, helped by more deliveries in Asia-Pacific; the backlog is the highest in four years and output, not demand, limits deliveries.
  • Energy gross margin jumped from 20.4% to 33.1%, mainly from tariff refunds and warranty adjustments tied to reimbursed cell costs; the size of these one-offs was not stated.
  • Results included a roughly $290M Bitcoin gain and a $142M markdown on its SpaceX stake; free cash flow was over $1.5B and cash and investments over $45B.
  • This year's capex of about $20B came in a little below plan, but it will keep rising in coming years; Tesla secured up to $30B of borrowing capacity (no draws planned this calendar year), operating costs keep growing until new products sell, and the Terafab chip plant was put at tens of billions, over $100B long term.
  • Robotaxi will not move results this quarter, with management expecting it to become noticeable around Q2 2027; Optimus sales outside Tesla are expected near the end of 2027, and full line rate is at least a year away. Over 75% of North American deliveries signed up for paid FSD.

The reaction

The stock fell 3.1% against 0.5% for its sector ETF (XLY), a company-specific drop of 2.6 points, or about 1.06 of its normal daily swing.

Why this verdict

The EPS beat of 5.5% looks less clean once you remove the net investment gain and the energy one-offs, and revenue was about in line (-0.04%). Our inference is that the underlying quarter was good, not exceptional, while the future spending bill grew and management itself tempered near-term hopes for Optimus. A one-swing decline matches that mix of real demand strength against heavier costs ahead.

Since then

From the first-session close to Nov 2 the stock rose 7.8% against 2.7% for XLY, reversing the first-day drop, though this may reflect other news, which we did not check.

What would prove this wrong

This verdict is wrong if margins hold without the one-offs and Robotaxi revenue becomes noticeable by Q2 2027 as management expects, which would mean the drop was too harsh.

WDC Fair -3.0% day · -3.7 vs SMH · 0.8× normal · since -1.5% A strong quarter and guide, but a small dip of under one normal daily swing fits the new capex overage and slower shipment growth than its rival.

FQ1 2027 call on 2026-10-22. Confidence: Low. First session: 2026-10-23.

What the call said

  • Revenue was $4.4B, up 55% from a year earlier; gross margin was 58.1%; adjusted EPS was $4.64; free cash flow was $1.4B.
  • Next-quarter guide: revenue of $5.1B (up 69% at the midpoint), gross margin of 60-61%, adjusted EPS of about $5.80.
  • Average price per terabyte rose 28% from a year earlier, up from high-teens growth the prior quarter; the CFO saw room for more over the next three to four quarters, then some slowing.
  • New caution: capital spending will run modestly above the 4-6% of revenue target for two years, for drive heads, media and automation, and cost per terabyte will fall less than the usual 10% near term because of memory-chip costs.
  • Data shipped grew 22%, which management called the low point; an analyst on the call put this about 10 points behind its peer. The top seven customers give demand visibility to 2030-2031.

The reaction

The stock fell 3.0% while its sector ETF (SMH) rose 0.7%, a company-specific move of -3.7 points, or 0.8 of its normal daily swing.

Why this verdict

Most of the call was positive: EPS and revenue beat consensus by 13% and 5.7%, and pricing accelerated. The real new negatives were the capex overage and growth lagging its rival, and analysts pressed on both plus a smaller competitor's capacity plans. A move this small is within ordinary noise, so it does not read as the market rejecting the results. Our inference is that the direction is debatable but the size is proportionate; the transcript gives no consensus figure for the guide.

Since then

From the first-session close to Nov 2 the stock fell 1.5% against SMH's 3.6% drop, a mild relative recovery that neither clearly confirms nor reverses a small initial move.

What would prove this wrong

This verdict is wrong if data shipment growth moves above 25% with capex staying near plan as management described, making the dip plainly unjustified, or if capex overruns and pricing slows well before the three to four quarters described.

PSX Fair +1.9% day · +1.6 vs XLE · 0.8× normal · since +0.5% A 20% EPS beat earned less than a normal day's relative move, which fits because much of the profit looks tied to war-disrupted refining margins (inference).

Q3 2026 call on 2026-10-28. Confidence: Medium. First session: 2026-10-28.

What the call said

  • Reported and adjusted earnings matched at $5.6B, or $14.08 per share, so no one-off separates them. Refineries ran at 98% of capacity with a Q3-record 41% yield of distillates (diesel and jet-type fuels).
  • Operating cash flow was $7.3B, or $6.2B without a $1.1B working capital benefit. The CFO said taxes accrued but not yet paid helped Q3 and will probably be a Q4 drag.
  • Debt fell $2B to $18.5B and net debt to capital reached 26%, hitting the 2027 target early. Shareholders received $2.8B, which is 45% of Q3 cash flow and 40% year to date against a 50%-plus commitment, so Q4 has to run above 50%.
  • For the longer run, the CEO sized refining improvements at about $2B at today's margins and about $1B at the old normal. Midstream (pipelines and processing) earns about $4B of EBITDA growing about 5% a year, and the CFO called high single-digit annual growth in the per-share dividend reasonable.
  • Against that, the $2.5B Western Gateway share lifts capex, with 2028 the peak year. US gasoline demand is down about 2.5% and diesel about 1.5%, and CPChem's Middle East plants are below full rates. Management expects strong margins through most of next year, citing the Iran and Ukraine wars and about 7 million barrels a day of capacity offline.

The reaction

PSX rose 1.9% while the energy fund XLE and SPY each rose about 0.3%-0.4%, leaving it 1.6 points ahead of its sector. That gap is 0.8 times the stock's normal daily move, so an ordinary-sized day.

Why this verdict

The beats of 20% on EPS and 11% on revenue (Finviz) look clean, since the call shows no gap between reported and adjusted earnings. But management itself ties current margins to war disruption and outages, and investors usually pay less for profit that may be near a cycle high (inference). The lasting changes are smaller: about $1B of refining gain at older margins and a steadier dividend path, set against $5.6B earned in one quarter. Reaching the debt target early and the buyback catch-up justify a small gain over the sector, and a case for more would rest on a margin forecast the call could not prove.

Since then

From the Oct 28 close to Nov 2 the stock added 0.5% while XLE fell 1.8% and SPY fell 2.6%, so it held its gain and mildly confirms the first reaction.

What would prove this wrong

Refining margins staying near these levels well into 2027, with cash returns above 50%, would suggest the market paid too little for this call.

STX Fair +4.5% day · +2.8 vs SMH · 0.7× normal · since -14.9% Results above the guided range, a stronger guide and supply sold through 2028 justified a modest rise, tempered by flat quarter-on-quarter data shipments.

FQ1 2027 call on 2026-10-27. Confidence: Medium. First session: 2026-10-28.

What the call said

  • Revenue was $4.2B, up 61% from a year earlier and 17% from the prior quarter, above the guided range; adjusted EPS was $7.68; operating margin was 50.7%; free cash flow was nearly $1.5B.
  • Next-quarter guide: revenue of $4.8B and adjusted EPS of about $9.20, with operating margin between 50% and 55%, as the CFO clarified when asked.
  • Most nearline (high-capacity data center drive) supply is allocated under long-term agreements through 2028, some through 2030; configuration and pricing are set only through 2027.
  • Capital spending stays at 4-6% of revenue; net cash is expected by year end, and buybacks step up from the March quarter with $4.4B authorized.
  • Soft spots: data center shipments were 198 exabytes, up 24% from a year earlier but about flat from the prior quarter, and analysts put the cost per terabyte decline at only mid-single digits, which management tied to outside component costs and scrap during product transitions.

The reaction

The stock rose 4.5% against 1.7% for its sector ETF (SMH), a company-specific gain of 2.8 points, or 0.67 of its normal daily swing.

Why this verdict

EPS and revenue beat consensus by a modest 3.2% and 2.0%, while guidance implied further margin gains and capital returns grew. That is good news but mostly a continuation of a known trend, so a gain inside the normal daily range looks proportionate. The flat shipments and higher inventory (an analyst cited 97 days, up from 83) were reasonable offsets, though management blamed planned product timing. The transcript gives no consensus figure for the guide.

Since then

From the first-session close to Nov 2 the stock fell 14.9% against 10.5% for SMH, erasing the gain, though most of that fall was sector-wide and could reflect other news.

What would prove this wrong

This verdict is wrong if the promised step-up in December-quarter shipments does not arrive or 2028 pricing resets lower, which would mean the rise was too generous.

V Fair -0.3% day · -0.8 vs XLF · 0.6× normal · since +6.2% A small dip fit a solid quarter whose small beat came from a lower tax rate, paired with a 2027 guide slower than 2026.

FQ4 2026 call on 2026-10-27. Confidence: Medium. First session: 2026-10-28.

What the call said

  • Fiscal Q4 revenue was $12.1B, up 13%, in line with Visa's own expectations. EPS of $3.48 rose 17%, and the CFO said it beat mainly because of an 18.4% tax rate tied to legal settlements.
  • Inference: at Visa's usual 19-20% tax rate, EPS would have been about $3.41-$3.45, so the tax benefit roughly equals the 1.20% (about $0.04) beat against consensus.
  • Fiscal 2027 guide: adjusted revenue growth in the low double digits and EPS growth in the low double digits to low teens, versus 15% and 16% in 2026. Q2 is expected to be the low point for revenue growth.
  • Client incentives (payments to banks and partners) grew 21% and will step up again, because about 25% of payment volume renews in 2027 versus about 20% in 2026. New pricing is weighted to the second half.
  • Demand held up: through Oct 21, US payment volume was up 10%, cross-border up 15% and processed transactions up 10%. Value-added services revenue grew 31% to $4B, with low-to-mid 20s growth expected in 2027.

The reaction

The stock fell 0.31% while the financial sector ETF (XLF) rose 0.45%, a gap of -0.76 points. That is -0.64 sigma, smaller than a typical day for the stock.

Why this verdict

Current demand was strong and showed no weakening among lower-spending customers, so a large drop would not have fit. Still, the headline beat was mostly tax, and next year's guide means slower growth with more money going to client renewals; one analyst asked directly why EPS growth was not higher. Visa also said it will stop giving monthly volume data after fiscal Q1, slightly reducing visibility. A move this small matches those mixed changes, though the transcript does not state what investors expected for 2027.

Since then

The stock is up 6.22% since that close against 2.55% for XLF and -2.62% for SPY, which partly reverses the dip, though Mastercard's strong report on Oct 29 may explain some of it (inference).

What would prove this wrong

Visa would prove this wrong if incentives or second-half pricing push 2027 revenue growth well outside the low double digits, in either direction.

JPM Fair -0.9% day · -0.4 vs XLF · 0.4× normal · since +2.8% A small drop fit a headline miss that was partly a securities loss, alongside real negatives: expenses up 12% and a much smaller buyback.

Q3 2026 call on 2026-10-13. Confidence: Medium. First session: 2026-10-13.

What the call said

  • EPS was $5.57 and revenue $50.9B, up 8%, with return on tangible equity of 20%. Results included $658M of investment securities losses. Inference: that loss is worth roughly $0.18-$0.24 per share, about half to two-thirds of the roughly $0.36 shortfall against consensus.
  • Expenses of $27.3B rose 12%, faster than revenue, and Q4 expenses are guided to about $27.5B. Management said its early view of 2027 expenses is not far from the roughly $114B consensus.
  • Management gave Q4 net interest income excluding markets (lending and deposit income) of about $25.5B and a central case of about $107B for 2027, calling that estimate more uncertain than usual. About a quarter of the growth from the Q4 run rate relies on rate hikes in the forward curve.
  • The buyback was $1B, against an analyst's cited pace of about $7B. Management said this reflects better uses for the capital, with about $30B of excess capital and a capital ratio (CET1) of 13.9%, down 0.3 points in the quarter.
  • Equities trading revenue rose 49% while fixed income fell 4%. Investment banking fees rose 14%, but activity slowed in late September. Card charge-offs stayed guided at about 3.2%, and management called the consumer healthy but warned that long-lasting high rates would hurt credit.

The reaction

The stock fell 0.86% while XLF fell 0.42%, a gap of -0.44 points. That is -0.41 sigma, well inside normal daily noise.

Why this verdict

The 6.03% EPS and 2.07% revenue misses overstate the damage because the securities loss was a one-off, yet not all of the miss goes away once it is removed. Expense growth above revenue growth, a sharply lower buyback and a cautious tone on rates and credit are real negatives, while the 2027 income case and strong client franchises offset them. A move of less than half a typical day matches that balance. The transcript does not state consensus figures, so the miss sizes come from the Finviz data.

Since then

The stock is up 2.76% since that close but trails XLF's 5.00% (SPY -3.33%), so it has neither reversed nor clearly confirmed the small first move.

What would prove this wrong

This verdict would look wrong if redeployed capital fails to earn good returns, or if expense growth keeps outrunning revenue in 2027, which would mean the drop was too small.

TSM Fair -1.8% day · -0.8 vs SMH · 0.4× normal · since -5.6% A solid beat and 14% sequential growth guide met a dip of only 0.37 normal daily swings, too small to call wrong given margin drag and unchanged capex.

Q3 2026 call on 2026-10-15. Confidence: Medium. First session: 2026-10-15.

What the call said

  • Q3 revenue was $46.7B, up 16.2% from Q2 and above the top of guidance. Gross margin fell 1.3 points to 66.4% as the new 2nm process ramped up.
  • Q4 guide is $52.3B-$54.3B, up about 14% sequentially and 58% from a year earlier at the midpoint. Gross margin is guided to 65%-67%, a midpoint 0.4 points lower.
  • Full-year 2026 revenue growth is now expected at around 44% in dollars. The 2026 capex budget stayed at $60B-$64B, not raised, though 2026-2028 spending should run well above the prior three years.
  • Management said AI chip demand still far exceeds supply and that its mid-to-high-50s% annual growth figure for AI accelerators (2024-2029) is probably too low, but it gave no new number.
  • Cautions: consumer and price-sensitive chip markets are being squeezed by component costs, so 2027 planning is careful. Overseas fabs will cut gross margin by 3-4 points in later years, which the CFO said was not a new figure.

The reaction

The US-listed shares fell 1.80% while the chip ETF SMH fell 1.04%, so the company-specific move was -0.76 points, only 0.37 of the stock's usual daily swing. SPY rose 0.28%.

Why this verdict

The call was strong, but it held little that should reprice the stock sharply: EPS and revenue beat consensus by just 1.75% and 0.86%, capex was not raised, and margins are guided slightly down. A company-specific move this small is close to no reaction, which fits a good quarter with some margin drag. The transcript does not give consensus for the Q4 guide, so how far it topped expectations is unknown.

Since then

From the first-session close to Nov 2 the stock fell 5.59% against 9.04% for SMH and 2.55% for SPY, so it held up better than chips, which does not really confirm or reverse a move this small.

What would prove this wrong

This verdict would look wrong if 2027 guidance shows growth far above what this call implied, or if gross margin falls clearly below the 65%-67% range.

Earnings

Next 12 reports

  • ~Tue Nov 03 BRK-B est.
  • Thu Nov 12 AMAT AMC
  • Tue Nov 17 NVDA AMC
  • Thu Dec 10 AVGO
  • Thu Dec 10 COST
  • Wed Dec 16 MU
  • ~Thu Jan 14 JPM est.
  • ~Wed Jan 20 UNH est.
  • ~Thu Jan 21 TSM est.
  • ~Tue Jan 26 MSFT est.
  • ~Tue Jan 26 COF est.
  • ~Wed Jan 27 LRCX est.

Last 14 days

  • Nov 02 AAPL: surprise EPS / sales 5.56% / 0.95%
  • Oct 29 MA: surprise EPS / sales 2.74% / 1.50%
  • Oct 29 LLY: surprise EPS / sales 30.99% / 8.03%
  • Oct 29 SNDK: surprise EPS / sales 6.09% / 2.92%
  • Oct 29 INTC: surprise EPS / sales 27.89% / -0.25%
  • Oct 29 AMZN: surprise EPS / sales -4.06% / -0.14%
  • Oct 28 PSX: surprise EPS / sales 20.05% / 11.29%
  • Oct 28 GEV: surprise EPS / sales 19.47% / 5.41%
  • Oct 28 MSFT: surprise EPS / sales 3.61% / 1.83%
  • Oct 28 GOOGL: surprise EPS / sales -29.69% / -0.30%
  • Oct 27 V: surprise EPS / sales 1.20% / 0.40%
  • Oct 27 STX: surprise EPS / sales 3.22% / 2.04%
  • Oct 22 BE: surprise EPS / sales 36.09% / 15.42%
  • Oct 22 WDC: surprise EPS / sales 12.98% / 5.72%
  • Oct 21 TSLA: surprise EPS / sales 5.49% / -0.04%
  • Oct 21 LRCX: surprise EPS / sales 0.84% / 0.95%
  • Oct 21 META: surprise EPS / sales -41.42% / 1.99%
  • Oct 20 COF: surprise EPS / sales 20.97% / 0.60%
  • Oct 20 SPCX: surprise EPS / sales 161.39% / 13.29%

Hedge-fund moves

Showing 2026-06-30 filings. Quarter-on-quarter changes appear once the next quarter is in (13Fs are due 45 days after quarter end; the next set lands by mid-November).

Congress trades in the 30

STOCK Act disclosures from the House and Senate, which can arrive up to 45 days after the trade. Amounts are ranges.

FiledTradedMemberSideTickerAmount
2026-11-012026-09-24John McGuire (R, House)SaleAVGO$1,001 - $15,000
2026-11-012026-10-01John McGuire (R, House)PurchaseMU$1,001 - $15,000
2026-11-012026-09-25John McGuire (R, House)PurchaseMU$1,001 - $15,000
2026-11-012026-09-24John McGuire (R, House)PurchaseMU$1,001 - $15,000
2026-10-292026-10-15David Taylor (R, House)PurchaseLRCX$1,001 - $15,000
2026-10-292026-10-15David Taylor (R, House)SaleV$1,001 - $15,000
2026-10-282026-10-23Kevin Hern (R, House)SaleASML$15,001 - $50,000
2026-10-282026-10-23Kevin Hern (R, House)SaleSTX$15,001 - $50,000
2026-10-272026-10-02Pete Sessions (R, House)SaleAAPL$250,001 - $500,000
2026-10-272026-10-27Pete Sessions (R, House)SaleAMZN$15,001 - $50,000
2026-10-272026-10-02Pete Sessions (R, House)SaleAMZN$100,001 - $250,000
2026-10-272026-10-15Pete Sessions (R, House)SaleBRK-B$15,001 - $50,000
2026-10-272026-10-13Pete Sessions (R, House)SaleCOST$100,001 - $250,000
2026-10-272026-10-02Pete Sessions (R, House)SaleCOST$250,001 - $500,000
2026-10-272026-10-02Pete Sessions (R, House)SaleMA$15,001 - $50,000
2026-10-272026-10-02Pete Sessions (R, House)SaleMSFT$250,001 - $500,000
2026-10-272026-10-02Pete Sessions (R, House)SaleNVDA$15,001 - $50,000
2026-10-272026-10-02Pete Sessions (R, House)SaleTSLA$15,001 - $50,000
2026-10-272026-10-02Pete Sessions (R, House)SaleV$15,001 - $50,000
2026-10-222026-10-01Cleo Fields (D, House)PurchaseNVDA$1,001 - $15,000
2026-10-222026-10-09Cleo Fields (D, House)PurchaseTSM$1,001 - $15,000
2026-10-142026-09-18Richard McCormick (R, House)PurchaseBRK-B$1,001 - $15,000
2026-10-142026-09-18Rick W. Allen (R, House)SaleCOST$1,001 - $15,000
2026-10-142026-08-31Daniel Meuser (R, House)SaleNVDA$1,001 - $15,000
2026-10-132026-09-23Kevin Hern (R, House)SaleUNH$15,001 - $50,000
2026-10-122026-09-16Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr. (D, House)SaleAVGO$1,001 - $15,000
2026-10-122026-09-30Lisa C. McClain (R, House)PurchaseMSFT$1,001 - $15,000
2026-10-122026-09-30Lisa C. McClain (R, House)SaleSTX$15,001 - $50,000
2026-10-122026-09-22Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr. (D, House)PurchaseTSM$1,001 - $15,000
2026-10-122026-09-18Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr. (D, House)SaleWDC$1,001 - $15,000
2026-10-072026-09-15Josh Gottheimer (D, House)SaleAMAT$1,001 - $15,000
2026-10-072026-09-24Maria Elvira Salazar (R, House)SaleBRK-B$1,001 - $15,000
2026-10-072026-09-22Maria Elvira Salazar (R, House)PurchaseMETA$1,001 - $15,000
2026-10-072026-09-24Maria Elvira Salazar (R, House)SaleMETA$1,001 - $15,000
2026-10-072026-09-24Maria Elvira Salazar (R, House)SaleMSFT$1,001 - $15,000
2026-10-072026-09-24Maria Elvira Salazar (R, House)SaleSPCX$1,001 - $15,000
2026-10-072026-09-24Maria Elvira Salazar (R, House)SaleUNH$1,001 - $15,000
2026-10-022026-09-28Michael A. Rulli (R, House)SaleMSFT$1,001 - $15,000
2026-10-012026-09-04Sheldon Whitehouse (D, Senate)Sale (Partial)JPM$15,001 - $50,000
2026-10-012026-09-04Sheldon Whitehouse (D, Senate)Sale (Partial)V$1,001 - $15,000

Newest 40 of 297.

Insider trades in the 30

SEC Form 4 open-market buys and sales. Alerts fire on every buy and on sales of $1M or more.

TradedTickerInsiderTitleSideValue
2026-11-02LRCXMayer Bethany-Sale$0.17M
2026-11-01TSMYuan LipenVPPurchase$0.07M
2026-10-30VCARNEY LLOYD-Sale$0.25M
2026-10-29GOOGLARNOLD FRANCES-Sale$0.02M
2026-10-29WDCCole Martin I-Sale$0.04M
2026-10-29WDCCole Martin I-Sale$0.08M
2026-10-29WDCCole Martin I-Sale$0.15M
2026-10-29WDCCole Martin I-Sale$0.16M
2026-10-29WDCCole Martin I-Sale$0.29M
2026-10-29WDCCole Martin I-Sale$0.10M
2026-10-29WDCCole Martin I-Sale$0.19M
2026-10-29WDCCole Martin I-Sale$0.02M
2026-10-29WDCCole Martin I-Sale$0.08M
2026-10-29WDCCole Martin I-Sale$0.23M
2026-10-29WDCCole Martin I-Sale$0.12M
2026-10-29WDCCole Martin I-Sale$0.13M
2026-10-27AAPLNewstead JenniferSVP, GC and Government AffairsSale$0.82M
2026-10-27COFFAIRBANK RICHARD DChairman and CEOSale$9.48M
2026-10-27COFFAIRBANK RICHARD DChairman and CEOSale$7.53M
2026-10-27COFFAIRBANK RICHARD DChairman and CEOSale$1.40M
2026-10-26METAAlford Peggy-Sale$0.25M
2026-10-26METAOlivan JavierChief Operating OfficerSale$0.26M
2026-10-26METAOlivan JavierChief Operating OfficerSale$0.05M
2026-10-26METAOlivan JavierChief Operating OfficerSale$0.61M
2026-10-26METAOlivan JavierChief Operating OfficerSale$0.04M

Trump trades in the 30

STOCK Act disclosures, last 180 days. Amounts are ranges.

FiledTradedSideTickerAmount
2026-10-082026-08-28SaleTSLA$50,001 - $100,000
2026-10-082026-08-28SaleBRK-B$15,001 - $50,000
2026-10-082026-08-28PurchaseMETA$50,001 - $100,000
2026-10-082026-08-28PurchaseMSFT$100,001 - $250,000
2026-10-082026-08-28SaleAVGO$1,001 - $15,000
2026-10-082026-08-26PurchaseMSFT$15,001 - $50,000
2026-10-082026-08-26PurchaseNVDA$15,001 - $50,000
2026-10-082026-08-26PurchaseAMZN$15,001 - $50,000
2026-10-082026-08-26PurchaseAVGO$15,001 - $50,000
2026-10-082026-08-24PurchaseTSLA$1,001 - $15,000
2026-10-082026-08-24PurchaseMETA$1,001 - $15,000
2026-10-082026-08-24SaleBRK-B$1,001 - $15,000
2026-10-082026-08-24SaleAAPL$1,001 - $15,000
2026-10-082026-08-24PurchaseMSFT$1,001 - $15,000
2026-10-082026-08-24PurchaseCOST$1,001 - $15,000
2026-10-082026-08-24PurchaseNVDA$1,001 - $15,000
2026-10-082026-08-21PurchaseV$250,001 - $500,000
2026-10-082026-08-21PurchaseMETA$5,000,001 - $25,000,000
2026-10-082026-08-21PurchaseBRK-B$250,001 - $500,000
2026-10-082026-08-21PurchaseMA$100,001 - $250,000
2026-10-082026-08-21SaleAMD$1,000,001 - $5,000,000
2026-10-082026-08-21SaleUNH$100,001 - $250,000
2026-10-082026-08-21SaleNVDA$500,001 - $1,000,000
2026-10-082026-08-21PurchaseCOF$100,001 - $250,000
2026-10-082026-08-21SaleAVGO$500,001 - $1,000,000
2026-10-082026-08-21SaleMU$250,001 - $500,000
2026-10-082026-08-21SaleAMAT$250,001 - $500,000
2026-10-082026-08-21SaleINTC$100,001 - $250,000
2026-10-082026-08-17PurchaseMETA$100,001 - $250,000
2026-10-082026-08-17PurchaseCOST$1,001 - $15,000
2026-10-082026-08-17PurchaseMSFT$500,001 - $1,000,000
2026-10-082026-08-17PurchaseAMZN$250,001 - $500,000
2026-10-082026-08-17PurchaseNVDA$500,001 - $1,000,000
2026-10-082026-08-10SaleCOST$1,001 - $15,000
2026-10-082026-08-10SaleMETA$1,001 - $15,000
2026-10-082026-08-10PurchaseMSFT$1,000,001 - $5,000,000
2026-10-082026-08-10SaleMSFT$1,001 - $15,000
2026-10-082026-08-10SaleMU$1,001 - $15,000
2026-10-082026-08-10PurchaseNVDA$1,001 - $15,000
2026-10-082026-08-10PurchaseAMZN$1,001 - $15,000

Newest 40 of 230.

Lobbying and federal contracts

Sum of the latest 4 reported quarters; "to" is the newest quarter included.

TickerLobbying, last 4 quartersFederal contracts, last 4 quarters
NVDA$6.2M to 2026 Q3–
AMZN$17.8M to 2026 Q3–
GOOGL$13.0M to 2026 Q3$2.1M to 2026 Q3
AAPL$11.2M to 2026 Q3$0.1M to 2026 Q3
MSFT$9.9M to 2026 Q3$30.8M to 2026 Q4
MU$3.0M to 2026 Q3$2.7M to 2026 Q4
TSM$2.7M to 2026 Q3–
META$25.4M to 2026 Q3$0.0M to 2025 Q2
AVGO$1.8M to 2026 Q3–
AMD$4.5M to 2026 Q3–
SPCX$0.8M to 2026 Q3–
LRCX$0.3M to 2026 Q3–
AMAT$2.9M to 2026 Q3–
INTC$2.9M to 2026 Q3$0.0M to 2022 Q3
TSLA$2.7M to 2026 Q3–
STX––
GEV$1.6M to 2026 Q3$0.1M to 2026 Q1
V$8.9M to 2026 Q3–
JPM$5.0M to 2026 Q3$0.8M to 2025 Q3
COST––
SNDK$0.2M to 2026 Q3–
BRK-B$0.7M to 2026 Q3–
LLY$11.8M to 2026 Q3$0.3M to 2026 Q3
PSX$7.7M to 2026 Q3$391.2M to 2025 Q3
WDC$1.0M to 2026 Q3–
MA$6.3M to 2026 Q3–
UNH$9.2M to 2026 Q3$0.2M to 2022 Q1
COF$4.8M to 2026 Q3–
BE$1.6M to 2026 Q3–
ASML––

Top holders (2026-06-30)